ABC Predicts Coalition Win for NSW Election

23/03/2019

Despite all the corruption and scandals that the NSW Coalition parties have been caught out in, ABC’s top election analyst Antony Green has predicted a Coalition win for NSW, leaving Gladys Berejiklian and John Barilaro as Premier and Deputy Premier. No one is calling it straight, however, with everyone being cautious about the numbers. Coalition is now the confirmed winner.

9:56pm. I think that is it from me tonight, but I am sure there will be much to talk about in the coming days and weeks – and of course, a Federal election in May! Let us hope that does not fall to the same outcome as the NSW one just did.

9:52pm. ABC live coverage has ended, but the votes will be counted over the coming days. One interesting outcome was the increase in the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party. There was a general shift away from the two major parties, but rather than to the Greens or Independents the votes went towards SFF. This is generally attributed to the fact that people are becoming increasingly disillusioned about the political stability of the two party system, and frankly I cannot blame them. SFF wouldn’t have been my choice, but it should alarm both Labor and the Coalition that, if they wish to remain in their current position, they need to step up their game and regain the population’s trust.

Will this have much of an impact on the Federal election though? In NSW perhaps very slightly, with a pull back to supporting the Coalition. Elsewhere, however, as is evident online right now, the country is deeply concerned about what a third NSW Coalition term will mean for the State. Their environmental record, tendency to privatise everything they can – one day we may pay for the luxury to breathe (don’t laugh too much, if fossil fuel polution gets too bad that might happen in some dystopian nightmare future) – and general corruption in relation to businesses and the like is troubling. The prospect of this continuing is quite terrifying.

9:42pm. There have been comments in the media about whether or not Daley will have his leadership challenged. He, in his concession speech, suggested that he plans on remaining the Labor leader, but if media pressure has its way like it did with the election, there may be a takeover.

9:37pm. The Coalition members are very intent on driving in the message of a “job to complete”, but it is hard to see what they are talking about. They have so many projects on the table, but none of them are working out. The stadium plans? Just plain idiocy. WestConnex? Not going to work as planned, budget blown way out, and will be privately owned, which will make the people pay even more. Hospitals and schools? The push is towards privatisation, not public investments.

All of the jobs they have set for themselves will result in a negative impact in the long term (if not already short term), and yet the people seem to have bought it all.

9:28pm. Again, both in the ABC discussions and in the speeches across the political divide, there seems to be a very widespread agreement that a female Premier being elected is a good thing. While I do not want to downplay such a result, it is the same as the Hillary in the US campaign (although she ended up losing) – a woman is good, but why her? Obviously mildly different ‘sides’ of the spectrum (supposedly), but even so, it is policy that matters.

When the leadership spill last year led to Morrison’s ascension, people raised brows at the fact that Julie Bishop was overlooked entirely. But that’s another example of my point – yes, a female PM might be a good thing, Bishop is not a pleasant person or politician. Julia Gillard was a brilliant PM, Penny Wong would be a brilliant leader of the Labor Party. But gender is not an important factor – look at the policies of the party!

9:20pm. I just went to the bathroom, came back to hear Berejiklian thank John Howard, former PM, for being there, followed by a short chant from the crowd of “John!” (there seems to be a lot of chanting of names from the audience there, another difference between the simple applause and cheers by the Labor audience). As I have said before, it’s rather telling that the Coalition is still keen to hold Howard in such high regard, seeing as he gave a convicted paedophile a glowing character reference.

9:04pm. There is a very stark difference between the Coalition and the Labor Party when it comes to speaking publicly. Scott Morrison’s congratulatory speech and all of Berejiklian’s campaigning is very much a sales pitch. They are intent of selling a product, no matter how false the information, no matter how dodgy the results. Listening to Shorten in the past, and Daley tonight, the Labor Party seems very focussed on people and ideas. Rather than selling their personalities and their shiny crap, Labor has a down to earth concept of what leadership is supposed to be.

However, we seem to have slowly been following the US in regards to how the populaec views politicians. Personality takes precedent over policy, which is never how it should be.

8:46pm. The ABC just announced that Daley has conceded the election, confirming the Coalition has won.

8:37pm. Labor has a knack for losing easy elections, and while that might be something to have a bit of a chuckle about, it is the result of very directed campaigns in the media. Support swings to the Coalition parties in the lead up to elections, either majorly like Sydney Morning Herald’s damning rejection of integrity and throwing a biased run for Berejiklian, or minor, like shows like the Project in the past (although Waleed Aly seems to have little love for Morrison, we will see what happens in May).

Friendlyjordies, (to use my tired line) everyone’s favourite Labor shill, attacked the Betoota Advocate over their coverage of Labor this past week. While I would not be so harsh, and know it is not the satire site’s role to provide any particular service politically, they were very prominent in pushing this false equivalency mentioned earlier. One of their articles said “NSW forced to choose between unbridled corruption and fairly blatant racism”. The two scenarios, especially when you consider how distorted Daley’s comments became in the mainsteam media, are not comparable in the slightest – yet, whether it was their intention, Betoota certainly regurgitated that narrative.

As someone who is a major fan of both Friendlyjordies and the Betoota Advocate, it will be interesting to see if they end up becoming part time rivals.

8:19pm. It has been disheartening to see a number of comments from friends and online about the lack of information people have regarding elections and candidates. A friend of mine in Coffs Harbour had her relatives place the Greens last, the only argument being that they are ‘idiots’. A number of other comments she heard while voting also showed a sad truth. So many people did not seem to know how to vote, and many others said they were voting for a specific party only because their parents, kids, partners, etc.

I think our education system needs to include information about how our politics works – things like how to vote, what preference voting is and what your vote means (we do not vote for a party specifically, but a candidate of that party). While talking about the platforms of parties would be a bit much – I can imagine many would argue that it would consitute “bias” to do so – people should know how to analyse proposed policies. Critical thinking is required to make a truly informed opinion.

8:10pm. The past week has been a great drop in morale for the Labor Party. The Sydney Morning Herald ran a heavy campaign against them, with them actually siding with the Liberal Party. What criticism they did make of the Coalition remained ‘hopeful’ that they could  turn it around, or were posted at times that were not peak hours (I know because I was up probably a bit too late last night).

There was also the issue of the media – including the Betoota Advocate, which I will talk more about in a moment – driving a false equivalence between Coalition corruption and Daley’s comments about Asians. The comments were taken way out of context, but when has the truth ever preceded a close election? Even if Daley was being mischievous with his intent, how does a single line about immigrants weigh the same against a litany of corruption scandals? I fail to see how a single non-story could have thrown the election off so much, yet here we are.

7:55pm. Some have said that is has been a small win for Gladys Berejiklian, as she is the first female Premier to win a NSW election. That the gender of the Premier is being mentioned seems unnecessary. In politics, it does not matter who the people running the parties are, but what the policies are. Gladys is a woman, but she is a wretched person residing over a wretched party.

7:45pm. While an overall swing is going towards Labor, the best outcome for them would be leaving the current government with a minority of seats. The Greens and Labor seem to be remaining static, with the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party on a heavy rise in certain electorates. Barrie Cassidy came in to give his prediction on the impact this election will have on the Federal election in May. He says that Sydney does not look promising for Labor, leaving it to Queensland and Victoria to push Labor forward if they make it.

The Coalition still seems to be holding onto their line of infrastructure investments, including the demolition and reconstruction of two stadiums around Sydney. It has been farcical to hear Coalition MPs and candidates talking about their push for schools and hospitals. Healthcare especially, the private sector has received way more attention than the public system, including the privatisation of hospitals and plans for more to fall in line.