History as a Method of Prediction
Again I loosely refer to the concepts introduced by Carr in his book What Is History?, but intend on using that as merely inspiration for my own thoughts on this topic and not as a recounting of his views. I’ve previously written about how history can be used as a comparative tool and as context to more succinctly understand current events (causation, which, coincidentally, is the chapter I am up to in Carr’s book). I have also written a few pieces predicting what I believe may happen in the near future based on the historical context of the region. There are also moral and factual aspects of these predictions that I believe are important, not because they have any bearing on the prediction itself, but on the person who made it and reason it was made.
Continue reading “What Is History?: A Reflection Pt.3”
In February, I predicted to some of my friends that Venezuela and Iran were the next likely candidates to fall to US interventionism (a couple of months later I tentatively added Nicaragua to the list as a possibility). Since then, an assassination attempt against Maduro took place in August, and Trump’s handling of the Iran situation has only exacerbated the divide between the two countries. While the latter can be partially attributed to the Trump Administration’s incompetence, both of these events follow imperialist patterns used by the US since the 1800’s. Iran appears to be holding firm against US rhetoric, but cracks in Venezuela’s once popular government have been visible for some time.
Continue reading “Venezuela is Primed for a Coup”